Government publishes reasonable worst-case assumptions for Brexit

Government publishes reasonable worst-case assumptions for Brexit

September 23, 2020

Today, the Government published its reasonable worst-case scenario planning assumptions for borders at the end of the transition period on 31st December 2020.

The scenario described is not a prediction, nor a forecast, but what is described as a prudent exercise in what could occur if businesses’ preparations for the UK’s exit from the EU are not improved. It is estimated that only 50-70% of large businesses, and just 20-40% of small-and medium-sized, are ready for the strict application of new EU requirements.

In the worst scenario, the flow rate of freight across the short Channel straits could reduce by 60-80%, leading to delays and queues of lorries in Kent, and this could continue for 3 months or longer. It is through this route that many medicines are brought into the UK.

The Department of Health and Social Care is working with the medicines supply chain in the UK to mitigate any disruption in the continuity of supply of medicines, medical devices and medical consumables.

Mitigations include a request to manufacturers and suppliers to increase their medicines stocks by at least 6 weeks on top of their usual buffer stocks and ensure plans are in place to air freight products with a short shelf life that cannot be stockpiled.

Read further details on the GOV.UK website


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